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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple formula. It often serves as a kind of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your franchise in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who engineered the biggest turnaround is handed the award. In practice, it sparks an annual debate about expectations and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or just the biggest upset.

Yet the latest race is distinctly unique. The group of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference winners fading and recent strugglers improving together. Under an typical season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this chaotic and entertaining season, he's competing with multiple other elite candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his rare ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. With his guidance, Williams has become more confident, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide-open targets everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to create magic out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually each gamble – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the building with the immense hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a normal year, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But the current isn't a normal year!

Where his candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained winning. However he comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has nailed the off-field aspects, which was not a guarantee after his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal staff mix of youth and experience, he trusted first-timers. From the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an initial strong start, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason setback had the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

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