Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. They composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end lose but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
